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Time-varying state correlations in state space models and their estimation via indirect inference
Schiavoni, Caterina; Koopman, Siem Jan; Palm, Franz C.; … - 2021
Statistics Netherlands uses a state space model to estimate the Dutch unemployment by using monthly series about the … more realistic real-time unemployment estimates. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012434085
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Detecting shocks : outliers and breaks in time series
Atkinson, A. C.; Kooiman, Siem J.; Shephard, Neil - 1993
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10000122498
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Idiosyncratic labour income risk and aggregate consumption : an unobserved component approach
Pozzi, Lorenzo - 2007
We investigate the importance of aggregate and consumer-specific or idiosyncratic labour income risk for aggregate consumption changes in the US over the period 1952-2001. Theoretically, the effect of labour income risk on consumption changes is decomposed into an aggregate and into an...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011372981
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Transmission of government spending shocks in the Euro area : time variation and driving forces
Kirchner, Markus; Cimadomo, Jacopo; Hauptmeier, Sebastian - 2010
This paper provides new evidence on the effects of government spending shocks and the fiscal transmission mechanism in the euro area for the period 1980-2008. Our contribution is two-fold. First, we investigate changes in the macroeconomic impact of government spending shocks using time-varying...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011380027
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Multivariate volatility impulse response analysis of GFC news events
Allen, David E.; McAleer, Michael; Powell, Robert; … - 2015
an initial shock and on history, minus the baseline expectation that conditions on history. This makes the process … endogenous, but the choice of the baseline shock within the data set makes a difference. We explore the impact of three different … government allowed the investment bank Lehman Brothers to go bankrupt (GFC2). The third shock is 9 May 2010, which marked the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011301206
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Volatility spillover and multivariate volatility impulse response analysis of GFC news events
Allen, David E.; McAleer, Michael; Powell, Robert; … - 2016
). The third shock is 9 May 2010. Our modelling includes leverage and asymmetric effects undertaken in the context of a …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011556166
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Moments, shocks and spillovers in Markov switching VAR models
Dijk, Dick van; Kole, Erik - 2021
To investigate how economies, financial markets or institutions can deal with stress, we nowadays often analyze the effects of shocks conditional on a recession or a bear market. MSVAR models are ideally suited for such analyses because they combine gradual movement with sudden switches. In this...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012621564
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Time-varying identification of monetary policy shocks
Camehl, Annika; Woźniak, Tomasz - 2023
six-variable system supports time variation in US monetary policy shock identification. In the sample-dominating first … stimulus, features the liquidity effect, and is complemented by a pure term spread shock. Absent the specific monetary policy …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014422351
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Cyclical consumption
Berger, Tino; Pozzi, Lorenzo - 2023
Recessions and expansions are often caused or reinforced by developments in private consumption - the largest component of aggregate demand - which, as a result, varies over the business cycle. As such, an accurate measurement of the cyclical component of consumption and an understanding of its...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014380708
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The pace of structural change, cyclical shocks and unemployment dynamics : simulations using an empirical flow model
Butter, Frank A. G. den; Dijk, Mark van - 1997
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10000961553