Several lessons learned from a Bayesian analysis of basic economic time series models by means of the Gibbs sampling algorithm are presented. Models include the Cochrane-Orcutt model for serial correlation, the Koyck distributed lag model, the Unit Root model, the Instrumental Variables model...

In economics and finance, speculative bubbles take the form of locally explosive dynamics that eventually collapse. We propose a test for the presence of speculative bubbles in the context of mixed causal-noncausal autoregressive processes. The test exploits the fact that bubbles are...

With panel data important issues can be resolved that can not beaddressed with cross--sectional data. A major drawback is that paneldata suffer from more severe missing data problems. Adding a sampleconsisting of new units randomly drawn from the original populationas replacements for units who...

Embedding the efficient bargaining model into the R. Hall (1988) approach for estimating price-cost margins shows that both imperfections in the product and labor markets generate a wedge between factor elasticities in the production function and their corresponding shares in revenue. This...

Pure time series-based tests fail to find empirical support formonetary exchange rate models. In this paper we apply pooled timeseries estimation on a forward-looking monetary model, resulting inparameter estimates which are in compliance with the underlyingtheory. Based on a panel version of...

To study the effect of the euro on international goods trade one typically estimates a panel model for the level of trade. Trade levels increase over time, and we show that this is not fully explained by the included regressors. Because the euro is only present at the end of the sample, this may...

This paper introduces a new estimator for the fixed effects dynamic panel data model withexogenous variables. This estimator does not share some of the drawbacks of recently developed IVand GMM estimators and has a good performance even in small samples. The nearly unbiased estimatoris derived...