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New neural network methods for forecasting regional employment : an analysis of German labour markets

Patuelli, Roberto; Reggiani, Aura; Nijkamp, Peter; … - 2006

In this paper, a set of neural network (NN) models is developed to compute short-term forecasts of regional employment … compares two NN methodologies. First, it uses NNs to forecast regional employment in both the former West and East Germany …. Each model implemented computes single estimates of employment growth rates for each German district, with a 2-year …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011348710

Beating the random walk : a performance assessment of long-term interest rate forecasts

Butter, Frank A. G. den; Jansen, Pieter W. - 2008 - This version 27 October 2008

This paper assesses the performance of a number of long-term interest rate forecast approaches, namely time series models, structural economic models, expert forecasts and combinations thereof. The predictive performance of these approaches is compared using out of sample forecast errors, where...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011377250

Analyzing fixed-event forecast revisions

Chang, Chia-Lin; Bruijn, Bert de; Franses, Philip Hans; … - 2013

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009765842

Nonlinear forecasting with many predictors using Kernel ridge regression

Exterkate, Peter; Groenen, Patrick J. F.; Heij, Christiaan - 2011

This paper puts forward kernel ridge regression as an approach for forecasting with many predictors that are related nonlinearly to the target variable. In kernel ridge regression, the observed predictor variables are mapped nonlinearly into a high-dimensional space, where estimation of the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011382698

Forecasting value-at-risk under temporal and portfolio aggregation

Kole, Erik; Markwat, Thijs; Opschoor, Anne; Dijk, Dick van - 2015

We examine the impact of temporal and portfolio aggregation on the quality of Value-at-Risk (VaR) forecasts over a horizon of ten trading days for a well-diversified portfolio of stocks, bonds and alternative investments. The VaR forecasts are constructed based on daily, weekly or biweekly...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011431503

An hourly periodic state space model for modelling French national electricity load

Dordonnat, V.; Koopman, Siem Jan; Ooms, Marius; … - 2008

We present a model for hourly electricity load forecasting based on stochastically time-varying processes that are designed to account for changes in customer behaviour and in utility production efficiencies. The model is periodic: it consists of different equations and different parameters for...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011373810

Partial likelihood-based scoring rules for evaluating density forecasts in tails

Diks, Cees G. H.; Panchenko, Valentyn; Dijk, Dick van - 2008

We propose new scoring rules based on partial likelihood for assessing the relative out-of-sample predictive accuracy of competing density forecasts over a specific region of interest, such as the left tail in financial risk management. By construction, existing scoring rules based on weighted...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011374395

Out-of-sample comparison of copula specifications in multivariate density forecasts

Diks, Cees G. H.; Panchenko, Valentyn; Dijk, Dick van - 2008

We introduce a statistical test for comparing the predictive accuracy of competing copula specifications in multivariate density forecasts, based on the Kullback-Leibler Information Criterion (KLIC). The test is valid under general conditions: in particular it allows for parameter estimation...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011377261

Asymmetries in conditional mean and variance : modelling stock returns by asMA-asQGARCH

Brännäs, Kurt; Gooijer, Jan G. de - 2000

The asymmetric moving average model (asMA) is extended to allow forasymmetric quadratic conditional heteroskedasticity (asQGARCH). Theasymmetric parametrization of the conditional variance encompassesthe quadratic GARCH model of Sentana (1995). We introduce a framework fortesting asymmetries in...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011303289

Score driven exponentially weighted moving average and value-at-risk forecasting

Lucas, André; Zhang, Xin - 2014

We present a simple new methodology to allow for time-variation in volatilities using a recursive updating scheme similar to the familiar RiskMetrics approach. It exploits the link between exponentially weighted moving average and integrated dynamics of score driven time varying parameter...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010384110

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