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To investigate the role of intra-regional trade integration on economic growth in Latin America, we develop a … factor for explaining growth, while the importance of domestic spillovers is limited. The growth volatility is substantively …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014233425
This note clarifies the relation between two competing definitions of the contribution to pricediscovery in market microstructure models: (i) the information share and (ii) the common factorcomponent weight. It is demonstrated that the two measures are closely related, but that only...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011325666
Time varying patterns in US growth are analyzed using various univariate model structures, starting from a naive model … conditional variance are specified together with their interaction, including survey data on expected growth in order to … forecasting performance of the various model specifications. The extension of a basic growth model with a constant mean to models …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010399680
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010191232
This paper explores the determinants of deviations of ex-post budget outcomes from first-release outcomes published towards the end of the year of budget implementation. The predictive content of the first-release outcomes is important, because these figures are an input for the next budget and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011386471
This paper studies the connection between trade and growth in the context of a partial and inconsistent liberalization … conclusion is supported by the results of country-specific growth regressions and of a counterfactual free trade experiment via a … analysis of the country trade patterns during the USSR period and the years since independence revealed that unlike its close …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011326958
.F.R. Science Economique, University de Franche-Comté]. In the non-stationary cointegration case, the limiting distribution of the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011332818
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10001726809
In this paper we study what professional forecasters actually explain. We use spectral analysis and state space modeling to decompose economic time series into a trend, a business-cycle, and an irregular component. To examine which components are captured by professional forecasters we regress...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011305773
Housing markets typically exhibit a strong positive correlation between the rate of price increase and the number of houses sold. We document this correlation on high-quality Dutch data for the period 1985-2007, and estimate a VEC-model that allows us to study the mechanism giving rise to the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011380162