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Evidence on a real business cycle model with neutral and investment-specific technology shocks using Bayesian model averaging
Strachan, Rodney W.; Dijk, Herman K. van - 2010 - Version 17 May 2010
) processes. The linear VAR model is extendedto permit cointegration, a range of deterministic processes, equilibrium restrictions …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011380727
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Specification testing in Hawkes models
Gresnigt, Francine; Kole, Erik; Franses, Philip Hans - 2015
We propose various specification tests for Hawkes models based on the Lagrange Multiplier (LM) principle. Hawkes models can be used to model the occurrence of extreme events in financial markets. Our specific testing focus is on extending a univariate model to a multivariate model, that is, we...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011298883
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Robust inference for non-Gaussian SVAR models
Hoesch, Lukas; Lee, Adam; Mesters, Geert - 2022
All parameters in structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) models are locally identified when the structural shocks are independent and follow non-Gaussian distributions. Unfortunately, standard inference methods that exploit such features of the data for identification fail to yield correct...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013417421
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Bayesian averaging over many dynamic model structures with evidence on the Great Ratios and liquidity trap risk
Strachan, Rodney W.; Dijk, Herman K. van - 2008
A Bayesian model averaging procedure is presented that makes use of a finite mixture of many model structures within the class of vector autoregressive (VAR) processes. It is applied to two empirical issues. First, stability of the Great Ratios in U.S. macro-economic time series is investigated,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011377110
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Fractional cointegration rank estimation
Lasak, Katarzyna; Velasco, Carlos - 2014
We consider cointegration rank estimation for a p-dimensional Fractional Vector Error Correction Model. We propose a … levels. The first step consists in estimating the parameters of the model under the null hypothesis of the cointegration rank … r=1,2,...,p-1. This step provides consistent estimates of the order of fractional cointegration, the cointegration …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010244531
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Adaptive testing for cointegration with nonstationary volatility
Boswijk, Herman Peter; Zu, Yang - 2019
size distortions in conventional cointegration tests, which may be resolved using the wild bootstrap, as shown by Cavaliere …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012026102
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Cointegrating Polynomial Regressions With Power Law Trends: Environmental Kuznets Curve or Omitted Time Effects?
Lin, Yicong; Reuvers, Hanno - 2022
The environmental Kuznets curve predicts an inverted U-shaped relationship between air pollution and economic growth. Current analyses frequently employ models that restrict nonlinearities in the data to be explained by economic growth only. We propose a Global Trend Augmented Cointegrating...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013463979
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Out-of-sample comparison of copula specifications in multivariate density forecasts
Diks, Cees G. H.; Panchenko, Valentyn; Dijk, Dick van - 2008
We introduce a statistical test for comparing the predictive accuracy of competing copula specifications in multivariate density forecasts, based on the Kullback-Leibler Information Criterion (KLIC). The test is valid under general conditions: in particular it allows for parameter estimation...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011377261
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Moments, shocks and spillovers in Markov switching VAR models
Dijk, Dick van; Kole, Erik - 2021
To investigate how economies, financial markets or institutions can deal with stress, we nowadays often analyze the effects of shocks conditional on a recession or a bear market. MSVAR models are ideally suited for such analyses because they combine gradual movement with sudden switches. In this...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012621564
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A Bayesian infinite hidden Markov vector autoregressive model
Nibbering, Didier; Paap, Richard; Wel, Michel van der - 2016
We propose a Bayesian infinite hidden Markov model to estimate time- varying parameters in a vector autoregressive model. The Markov structure allows for heterogeneity over time while accounting for state-persistence. By modelling the transition distribution as a Dirichlet process mixture model,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011569148