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We propose a novel multivariate GARCH model that incorporates realized measures for the variance matrix of returns. The key novelty is the joint formulation of a multivariate dynamic model for outer-products of returns, realized variances and realized covariances. The updating of the variance...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011520881
. The methodology is hybrid because it combines a formaltesting procedure with volatility curve pattern recognition based …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011299968
methods. The effects of several model characteristics(unit roots, GARCH, stochastic volatility, heavy tailed …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011302131
In this paper we present an exact maximum likelihood treatment forthe estimation of a Stochastic Volatility in Mean …(SVM) model based on Monte Carlo simulation methods. The SVM modelincorporates the unobserved volatility as anexplanatory variable … Stochastic Volatility (SV)model. However, efficient Monte Carlo simulationmethods for SV models have been developed to overcome …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011303314
This paper considers a simple Continuous Beliefs System (CBS) toinvestigate the effects on price dynamics of several behavioralassumptions: (i) herd behaviour; (ii) a-synchronous updating ofbeliefs; and (iii) heterogeneity in time horizons (memory) amongagents. The recently introduced concept of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011334332
improved volatility measurements but has also inspired research into their potential value as an information source for … volatility forecasting. In this paper we explore the forecasting value of historical volatility (extracted from daily return … series), of implied volatility (extracted from option pricing data) and of realised volatility (computed as the sum of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011334848
The sum of squared intraday returns provides an unbiased and almost error-free measure of ex-post volatility. In this … paper we develop a nonlinear Autoregressive Fractionally Integrated Moving Average (ARFIMA) model for realized volatility …, which accommodates level shifts, day-of-the-week effects, leverage effects and volatility level effects. Applying the model …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011335205
In the class of univariate conditional volatility models, the three most popular are the generalized autoregressive … effects on conditional volatility of positive and negative effects of equal magnitude, and possibly also leverage, which is … the negative correlation between returns shocks and subsequent shocks to volatility (see Black 1979). McAleer (2014 …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011688332
methods. The effects ofseveral modelcharacteristics (unit roots, GARCH, stochastic volatility, heavy taileddisturbance …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011313921
that is embedded in the time-varying parameter path. We illustrate our findings in a volatility analysis for monthly …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010484891