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25 years of IIF time series forecasting : a selective review

Gooijer, Jan G. de; Hyndman, Rob J. - 2005

We review the past 25 years of time series research that has been published in journals managed by the International Institute of Forecasters (Journal of Forecasting 1982-1985; International Journal of Forecasting 1985-2005). During this period, over one third of all papers_new published in these...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011346491

Forecasting value-at-risk under temporal and portfolio aggregation

Kole, Erik; Markwat, Thijs; Opschoor, Anne; Dijk, Dick van - 2015

We examine the impact of temporal and portfolio aggregation on the quality of Value-at-Risk (VaR) forecasts over a … based on asset class, or into a single portfolio. We compare the impact of aggregation to that of choosing a model for the … that the degree of temporal aggregation is most important. Daily returns form the best basis for VaR forecasts. Modelling …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011431503

Why frequency matters for unit root testing

Boswijk, Herman Peter; Klaassen, Franc - 2004 - Rev.

It is generally believed that for the power of unit root tests, only the time span and not the observation frequency matters. In this paper we show that the observation frequency does matter when the high-frequency data display fat tails and volatility clustering, as is typically the case for...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011342578

Likelihood-based analysis for dynamic factor models

Jungbacker, Borus; Koopman, Siem Jan - 2008

We present new results for the likelihood-based analysis of the dynamic factor model that possibly includes intercepts and explanatory variables. The latent factors are modelled by stochastic processes. The idiosyncratic disturbances are specified as autoregressive processes with mutually...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011373811

Dynamic factor analysis in the presence of missing data

Jungbacker, Borus; Koopman, Siem Jan; Wel, Michel van der - 2011

This paper concerns estimating parameters in a high-dimensional dynamic factormodel by the method of maximum likelihood. To accommodate missing data in theanalysis, we propose a new model representation for the dynamic factor model. Itallows the Kalman filter and related smoothing methods to...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011377572

Interpretation problems with changes in indices based on categorizations

Frijters, Paul - 2000

In this paper it is argued that occupational and organizational codes maximizethe correspondence between activities and easily observable characteristics atthe time of their development. Over time the codes become less relevant, leadingto the false impression that the segregation of individuals...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011303307

The multi-state latent factor intensity model for credit rating transitions

Koopman, Siem Jan; Lucas, André; Monteiro, André Antonio - 2006

A new empirical reduced-form model for credit rating transitions is introduced. It is a parametric intensity-based duration model with multiple states and driven by exogenous covariates and latent dynamic factors. The model has a generalized semi-Markov structure designed to accommodate many of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011346452

Quantifying the scope for efficiency defense in merger control : the Werden-Froeb-Index

Goppelsroeder, Marie; Schinkel, Maarten-Pieter; … - 2006

This paper introduces the Werden-Froeb Index (WFI) to assist in evaluating merger-specific efficiencies in horizontal mergers. The index measures the weighted average reduction in marginal costs required to restore pre-merger equilibrium prices and quantities after the (full or partial) merger...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011349182

The forward premium puzzle only emerges gradually

Bernoth, Kerstin; Hagen, Jürgen von; Vries, Casper G. de - 2007

The forward premium puzzle (FPP) is the negative correlation between the forward premium and the realized exchange rate return at maturities of a month and beyond. Some recent evidence shows that at maturities of multiple years and at the highest intra day frequency the correlation is positive...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011372514

A hybrid joint moment ratio test for financial time series

Groenendijk, Patrick A.; Lucas, André; Vries, Casper G. de - 1998

We advocate the use of absolute moment ratio statistics in conjunctionwith standard variance ratio statistics in order to disentangle lineardependence, non-linear dependence, and leptokurtosis in financial timeseries. Both statistics are computed for multiple return horizonssimultaneously, and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011299968

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