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economics literature on tourism. The reason for this interest emerges from both the increasing economic importance of the … tourist sector and the increasing competition on the tourist market as a consequence of the transition from mass tourism to a … new age of tourism that calls for a tailor-made approach to the specific attitudes and needs of tourists. The central …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011349706
Fluctuations in the numbers of visitors directly affect the rates of return on tourism business activities. Therefore … visiting Taiwan is conducive to the formulation of an effective and practical tourism strategy. Although the topic of … international visitors to Taiwan is important, existing research has discussed the issue of the travel demand between Chinese …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011813417
We use Google search data with the aim of predicting unemployment, CPI and consumer confidence for the US, UK, Canada, Germany and Japan. Google search queries have previously proven valuable in predicting macroeconomic variables in an in-sample context. To our knowledge, the more challenging...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011987495
delivers a flexible and easy-to-implement framework for the forecasting of a low-frequency time series variable through the use … model in an empirical study on the forecasting of U.S. headline inflation. In particular, we forecast monthly inflation … using daily oil prices and quarterly inflation using effective federal funds rates. The forecasting results and other …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011809978
We present new results for the likelihood-based analysis of the dynamic factor model that possibly includes intercepts and explanatory variables. The latent factors are modelled by stochastic processes. The idiosyncratic disturbances are specified as autoregressive processes with mutually...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011373811
variancefunctions. In a genuine out-of-sample forecasting experiment theperformance of the best fitted asMA-asQGARCH model is compared … topure asMA and no-change forecasts. This is done both in terms ofconditional mean forecasting as well as in terms of risk … forecasting. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011303289
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009765832
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009720758
We propose a new approach to deal with structural breaks in time series models. The key contribution is an alternative dynamic stochastic specification for the model parameters which describes potential breaks. After a break new parameter values are generated from a so-called baseline prior...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011383033
The multivariate analysis of a panel of economic and financial time series with mixed frequencies is a challenging problem. The standard solution is to analyze the mix of monthly and quarterly time series jointly by means of a multivariate dynamic model with a monthly time index: artificial...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010391543