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In this paper we present an exact maximum likelihood treatment forthe estimation of a Stochastic Volatility in Mean …(SVM) model based on Monte Carlo simulation methods. The SVM modelincorporates the unobserved volatility as anexplanatory variable … in the mean equation. The same extension isdeveloped elsewhere for Autoregressive ConditionalHeteroskedastic (ARCH …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011303314
This paper documents the existence of large structural breaks in the unconditional correlations among the British pound, Norwegian krone, Swedish krona, Swiss franc, and euro exchange rates (against the US dollar) during the period 1994-2003. Using the framework of dynamic conditional...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011343243
methods. The effects of several model characteristics(unit roots, GARCH, stochastic volatility, heavy tailed …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011302131
,1$) innovations, and predicts a relation between the ARCH and GARCH coefficients. Heterogeneity in memory leads to long … coefficient and the relation between the ARCH and GARCH coefficients for exchange rate data. … predicts MA(1) structure with a negative coeffient. Asynchronous updating leads to an MA(1) model for returns with GARCH($1 …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011334332
methods. The effects ofseveral modelcharacteristics (unit roots, GARCH, stochastic volatility, heavy taileddisturbance …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011313921
for longer horizon volatility forecasts. In this paper we explore the forecasting value of these high fre-quency series in … Volatility (SV) and Generalised Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) models which are both extended to include … the intraday volatility measure. For forecasting horizons ranging from one day to one week the most accurate out …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011326944
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010191413
We propose a new approach to deal with structural breaks in time series models. The key contribution is an alternative dynamic stochastic specification for the model parameters which describes potential breaks. After a break new parameter values are generated from a so-called baseline prior...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011383033
bimodality, APS comparesfavourably with the standard Metropolis-Hastings sampler in terms ofparsimony and robustness. APS is … applied within a Bayesian analysisof a GARCH-mixture model which is used for the evaluation of theValue-at-Risk of the return …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011302625
, namely, GARCH (1,1), GJR (1,1) and EGARCH (1,1), are used to estimate the abnormal rate of change in the number of tourists …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011794257