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Long memory modelling of inflation with stochastic variance and structural breaks
Bos, Charles S.; Koopman, Siem Jan; Ooms, Marius - 2007
We investigate changes in the time series characteristics of postwar U.S. inflation. In a model-based analysis the … conditional mean of inflation is specified by a long memory autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average process and the … efficient estimates of the parameters using a monthly dataset of core inflation for which we consider different subsamples of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011373822
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Time series models with a common stochastic variance for analysing economic time series
Koopman, Siem Jan; Bos, Charles S. - 2002
concerned with themodelling and forecasting of two U.S. macroeconomic time series:inflation and industrial production. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011327834
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Unobserved components with stochastic volatility in U.S. inflation : estimation and signal extraction
Li, Mengheng; Koopman, Siem Jan - 2018
applied to quarterly and monthly US inflation in an empirical study. We find that the persistence of quarterly inflation has … and density forecasts for monthly US inflation. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011809984
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Modelling seasonalities in nonlinear inflation rates using SEASETARs
Gooijer, Jan G. de; Vidiella-i-Anguera, Antoni - 2000
In this paper, we present a new time series model, whichdescribes self-exciting threshold autoregressive (SETAR) nonlinearityand seasonality simultaneously. The model is termed multiplicativeseasonal SETAR (SEASETAR). It can be viewed as a special case of ageneral non-multiplicativeSETAR model...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011304390
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Money: inflation nexus in Indonesia : evidence from a P-Star analysis
Anglingkusumo, Reza - 2005
crisis is empirically examined. The standard model for themonetary analysis of inflation, i.e. the P-Star model by Hallman … long run dynamics of CPI inflation inIndonesia remarkably weIl. Hence, there is an empirical support for the assertion that …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011343263
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Slow expectation-maximization convergence in low-noise dynamic factor models
Opschoor, Daan; Dijk, Dick van - 2023
This paper addresses the poor performance of the Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm in the estimation of low-noise dynamic factor models, commonly used in macroeconomic forecasting and nowcasting. We show analytically and in Monte Carlo simulations how the EM algorithm stagnates in a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014249849
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An empirical assessment of the U.S. Phillips curve over time
Vlekke, Marente; Koopman, Siem Jan; Mellens, Martin C. - 2021
the Phillips curve over time. We consider different specifications and different measures for inflation. Furthermore, we ….S. headline inflation has remained empirically relevant over the years. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012665848
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Moments, shocks and spillovers in Markov switching VAR models
Dijk, Dick van; Kole, Erik - 2021
To investigate how economies, financial markets or institutions can deal with stress, we nowadays often analyze the effects of shocks conditional on a recession or a bear market. MSVAR models are ideally suited for such analyses because they combine gradual movement with sudden switches. In this...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012621564
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Likelihood-based cointegration analysis in panels of vector error correction models
Groen, Jan J. J.; Kleibergen, Frank - 1999 - This version: July 28, 1999
We propose in this paper a likelihood-based framework forcointegration analysis in panels of a fixed number of vector errorcorrection models. Maximum likelihood estimators of thecointegrating vectors are constructed using iterated GeneralizedMethod of Moments estimators. Using these estimators...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011302148
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Return and risk of pairs trading using a simulation-based Bayesian procedure for predicting stable ratios of stock prices
Gatarek, Lukasz; Hoogerheide, Lennart F.; Dijk, Herman … - 2014
cointegration model, of pairs of stock prices. We show the effect that using an encompassing prior under an orthogonal normalization …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010259626