Showing 1 - 10 of 317
We propose a new approach to deal with structural breaks in time series models. The key contribution is an alternative dynamic stochastic specification for the model parameters which describes potential breaks. After a break new parameter values are generated from a so-called baseline prior...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011383033
variancefunctions. In a genuine out-of-sample forecasting experiment theperformance of the best fitted asMA-asQGARCH model is compared … topure asMA and no-change forecasts. This is done both in terms ofconditional mean forecasting as well as in terms of risk … forecasting. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011303289
explores various specifications of decompositions and various forecasting experiments. The result from these horse-races is … for richer forecasting specifications, the paper shows, using Bayesian model averaging techniques (BMA), that the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011378362
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009765836
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009767001
provide a theoretical justification of the use of random subspace methods and show their usefulness when forecasting monthly …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011531132
The paper investigates the impact of jumps in forecasting co-volatility, accommodating leverage effects. We modify the … forecasting weekly and monthly horizons. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010477100
The multivariate analysis of a panel of economic and financial time series with mixed frequencies is a challenging problem. The standard solution is to analyze the mix of monthly and quarterly time series jointly by means of a multivariate dynamic model with a monthly time index: artificial...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010391543
short-term forecasting models. These empirical findings have been established for different macroeconomic data sets and … specification is most effective in its forecasting performance. Furthermore, the forecast performances of the different … extended empirical out-of-sample forecasting competition for quarterly growth of gross domestic product in the euro area and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010395082
surface types. We finally show that our proposed model can also be effective in forecasting. We provide evidence that our … model significantly outperforms existing models in the forecasting of tennis match results. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011794344