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Bayesian forecasting of federal funds target rate decisions

Hauwe, Sjoerd van den; Dijk, Dick van; Paap, Richard - 2011

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009720780

Getting the most out of macroeconomic information for predicting stock returns and volatility

Çakmaklı, Cem; Dijk, Dick van - 2010

This paper documents that factors extracted from a large set of macroeconomic variables bear useful information for predicting monthly US excess stock returns and volatility over the period 1980-2005. Factor-augmented predictive regression models improve upon both benchmark models that only...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011382428

Variable selection and functional form uncertainty in cross-country growth regressions

Salimans, Tim - 2011

Regression analyses of cross-country economic growth data are complicated by two main forms of model uncertainty: the uncertainty in selecting explanatory variables and the uncertainty in specifying the functional form of the regression function. Most discussions in the literature address these...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011382708

Regularized estimation of structural instability in factor models : the US macroeconomy and the great moderation

Callot, Laurent; Kristensen, Johannes Tang - 2015

high dimensional by construction and sparse by assumption, is estimated using the Lasso. We apply this method to the …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010532582

Estimation and forecasting of large realized covariance matrices and portfolio choice

Callot, Laurent; Kock, Anders B.; Medeiros, Marcelo C. - 2014

autoregressive models. We propose using Lasso-type estimators to reduce the dimensionality to a manageable one and provide strong …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010433899

Vector autoregressions with parsimoniously time varying parameters and an application to monetary policy

Callot, Laurent; Kristensen, Johannes Tang - 2014

) and studies the properties of the Lasso and adaptive Lasso as estimators of this model. The parameters of the model are … finite sample properties of the Lasso by deriving upper bounds on the estimation and prediction errors that are valid with … of non zero increments grows slower than √T . By simulation experiments we investigate the properties of the Lasso and …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010433901

Joint modelling and estimation of global and local cross-sectional dependence in large panels

Koopman, Siem Jan; Schaumburg, Julia; Wiersma, Quint - 2021

We propose a new unified approach to identifying and estimating spatio-temporal dependence structures in large panels. The model accommodates global crosssectional dependence due to global dynamic factors as well as local cross-sectional dependence, which may arise from local network structures....

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012421000

Bankruptcy codes and risk sharing of currency unions

Wang, Xuan - 2021

Since the Eurozone Crisis of 2010-12, a critical debate on the viability of a currency union has focused on the role of a fiscal union in adjusting for country heterogeneity. However, a fully-fledged fiscal union may not be politically feasible. This paper develops a two-country general...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012421007