In economics and finance, speculative bubbles take the form of locally explosive dynamics that eventually collapse. We propose a test for the presence of speculative bubbles in the context of mixed causal-noncausal autoregressive processes. The test exploits the fact that bubbles are...

The sum of squared intraday returns provides an unbiased and almost error-free measure of ex-post volatility. In this paper we develop a nonlinear Autoregressive Fractionally Integrated Moving Average (ARFIMA) model for realized volatility, which accommodates level shifts, day-of-the-week...

The paper derives a Multivariate Asymmetric Long Memory conditional volatility model with Exogenous Variables (X), or the MALMX model, with dynamic conditional correlations, appropriate regularity conditions, and associated asymptotic theory. This enables checking of internal consistency and...

The paper develops a novel realized matrix-exponential stochastic volatility model of multivariate returns and realized covariances that incorporates asymmetry and long memory (hereafter the RMESV-ALM model). The matrix exponential transformation guarantees the positivedefiniteness of the...

For forecasting volatility of futures returns, the paper proposes an indirect method based on the relationship between futures and the underlying asset for the returns and time-varying volatility. For volatility forecasting, the paper considers the stochastic volatility model with asymmetry and...

The paper develops a novel realized stochastic volatility model of asset returns and realized volatility that incorporates general asymmetry and long memory (hereafter the RSV-GALM model). The contribution of the paper ties in with Robert Basmann's seminal work in terms of the estimation of...

In this paper the effect of excess narrow money (MI) on C PI intlation in Indonesiabefore, during, and after the Asian crisis is empirically examined. The standard model for themonetary analysis of inflation, i.e. the P-Star model by Hallman-Porter-Small (1991), isapplied and tested empirically...

We assess the stability of the unemployment gap parameter using linear dynamic Phillips curve models for the United States. In this study, we allow the unemployment gap parameter to be time-varying such that we can monitor the importance of the Phillips curve over time. We consider different...