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This paper tests the policitcal dimensions of the presidential cycle effect in U.S. financial markets. The presidential cycle effect states that average stock market returns are significantly higher in the last two years compared to the first two years of a presidential term. We confirm the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011377245
Time varying patterns in US growth are analyzed using various univariate model structures, starting from a naive model … including time variation in the mean and variance requires careful investigation of possible identification issues of the … data. Empirical results indicate that incorporating time variation in mean growth rates as well as in volatility are …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010399680
We introduce a new model for time-varying spatial dependence. The model extends the well-known static spatial lag model … study the information theoretic optimality of the updating steps for the time-varying spatial dependence parameter. We adopt …-border lending data and include country-specific and Europe-wide risk factors as controls. We find a high, time-varying degree of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010391531
The multivariate analysis of a panel of economic and financial time series with mixed frequencies is a challenging … problem. The standard solution is to analyze the mix of monthly and quarterly time series jointly by means of a multivariate … dynamic model with a monthly time index: artificial missing values are inserted for the intermediate months of the quarterly …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010391543
them more suitable for real-time forecasting. We show that the factor models have been able to systematically beat the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010395082
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010191405
citizens thus strongly affects their access to finance. Finally, we review the recent literature on the time variation of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011374399
Legislation affects corporate governance and the return to human and financial capital. We allow the preference of a political majority to determine both the governance structure and the extent of labor rents. In a society where median voters have relatively more at stake in the form of human...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011334863
In a democracy, a political majority can influence both the corporategovernance structure and the return to human and financial capital.We argue that when financial wealth is sufficiently diffused, thereis political support for a strong governance role for dispersed equitymarket investors, and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011346462
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009724339