Regression analyses of cross-country economic growth data are complicated by two main forms of model uncertainty: the uncertainty in selecting explanatory variables and the uncertainty in specifying the functional form of the regression function. Most discussions in the literature address these...

The literature that tests for U-shaped relationships using panel data, such as those between pollution and income or inequality and growth, reports widely divergent (parametric and non-parametric) empirical findings. We explain why lack of identification lies at the root of these differences. To...

We study entrepreneurs’ behavioral responses of effort (moral hazard) to avoid business failure.This is done in the context of an unemployment insurance scheme for self-employed, wherewe estimate how much of the transition probability to unemployment can be causally attributedto being insured....

We propose a dynamic clustering model for studying time-varying group structures in multivariate panel data. The model is dynamic in three ways: First, the cluster means and covariance matrices are time-varying to track gradual changes in cluster characteristics over time. Second, the units of...

This paper contributes to the productivity literature by using results from firm-level productivity studies to improve forecasts of macro-level productivity growth. The paper employs current research methods on estimating firm-level productivity to build times-series components that capture the...

We develop a dynamic Bayesian model for clickthrough and conversion probabilities of paid search advertisements. These probabilities are subject to changes over time, due to e.g. changing consumer tastes or new product launches. Yet, there is little empirical research on these dynamics. Gaining...

We model panel data of crime careers of juveniles from a Dutch Judicial Juvenile Institution. The data are decomposed into a systematic and an individual-specific component, of which the systematic component reflects the general time-varying conditions including the criminological climate....

This paper uses micro data from four OECD countries (the United States, Spain, Italy, and the Netherlands), to assess the determinants of household debt holding and to investigate whether or not credit constraints are important for household debt holding. We extend the existing literature in...

We propose a novel econometric model for estimating and forecasting cross-sections of time-varying conditional default probabilities. The model captures the systematic variation in corporate default counts across e.g. rating and industry groups by using dynamic factors from a large panel of...

We investigate the presence of moral hazard and advantageous or adverse selection in a market for supplementary health insurance. For this we specify and estimate dynamic models for health insurance decisions and health care utilization. Estimates of the health care utilization models indicate...