The sum of squared intraday returns provides an unbiased and almost error-free measure of ex-post volatility. In this paper we develop a nonlinear Autoregressive Fractionally Integrated Moving Average (ARFIMA) model for realized volatility, which accommodates level shifts, day-of-the-week...

In this paper we test for (Generalized) AutoRegressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity [(G)ARCH] in daily data on 22 exchange rates and 13 stock market indices using the standard Lagrange Multiplier [LM] test for GARCH and a LM test that is resistant to patches of additive outliers. The data span...

This paper proposes a score-driven model for filtering time-varying causal parameters through the use of instrumental variables. In the presence of suitable instruments, we show that we can uncover dynamic causal relations between variables, even in the presence of regressor endogeneity which...

The Commonwealth of Virginia abolished parole and reformed sentencing for all felony of-fenders committed on or after January 1, 1995. We examine the impact of this legislationon reported crime rates using different time series approaches. In particular, structuraltime series models are...

The increasing availability of financial market data at intraday frequencies has not only led to the development of improved volatility measurements but has also inspired research into their potential value as an information source for volatility forecasting. In this paper we explore the...

In this paper we aim to measure actual volatility within a model-based framework using high-frequency data. In the empirical finance literature it is known that tick-by-tick prices are subject to market micro-structure such as bid-ask bounces and trade information. Such market micro-structure...

The increasing availability of financial market data at intraday frequencies has not only led to the development of improved ex-post volatility measurements but has also inspired research into their potential value as an informa-tion source for longer horizon volatility forecasts. In this paper...

We first consider an extension of the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model that allows for a more flexible weighting of financial squared-returns for the filtering of volatility. The parameter for the squared-return in the GARCH model is time- varying with an...

Internationally operating firrns naturally face the decision whether or not to hedge the currencyrisk implied by foreign investments. In a recent paper, Bos, Mahieu and van Dijk (2000) evaluatethe returns from optimal and alternative currency hedging strategies, for a series of 7 models,using...