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Business cycles and compositional variation in US unemployment
Abbring, Jaap H.; Berg, Gerard J. van den; Ours, Jan C. van - 1997
In the past decades several features of U.S. unemployment dynamics have been investigated empirically. The original … focus of research was on the duration of unemployment. In later studies the cyclicality of incidence and duration …, compositional effects and duration dependence of the exit rate out of unemployment have been investigated. Unlike the partial …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010336863
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Periodic unobserved cycles in seasonal time series with an application to US unemployment
Koopman, Siem Jan; Ooms, Marius; Hindrayanto, Irma - 2006
, the model is applied to postwar monthly US unemployment series and we discover a significantly periodic cycle. Furthermore …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011350384
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Beyond Okun's law : output growth and labor market flows
Lim, Guay C.; Dixon, Robert J.; Ours, Jan C. van - 2018
This paper studies the relationship between the change in the unemployment rate and output growth using an approach …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011940045
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The crisis sensitivity of European countries and regions : stylized facts and spatial heterogeneity
Groot, Stefan P. T.; Möhlmann, Jan L.; Garretsen, Harry; … - 2011
This paper investigates the impact of the recent global recession on European countries and regions. We first present … several stylized facts as to the heterogeneous impact of the global recession on individual European countries and regions. We …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011386447
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Entrepreneurship and the business cycle
Koellinger, P. D.; Thurik, Adriaan R. - 2011 - Date of completion of this updated manuscript: Mar 23, 2011
We study the cyclical pattern of entrepreneurial activity. Results across 22 OECD countries for the period 1972-2007 show that entrepreneurial activity is a leading indicator of the business cycle in a Granger-causality sense. This contradicts existing theoretical hypotheses which predict that...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011378123
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Model-based business cycle and financial cycle decomposition for Europe and the U.S.
Koopman, Siem Jan; Lit, Rutger; Lucas, André - 2016
We develop a multivariate unobserved components model to extract business cycle and financial cycle indicators from a panel of economic and financial time series of four large developed economies. Our model is flexible and allows for the inclusion of cycle components in different selections of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011520505
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Heterogeneity in manufacturing growth risk
Opschoor, Daan; Dijk, Dick van; Franses, Philip Hans - 2021
We analyze output growth risk with respect to financial conditions across U.S. manufacturing industries. Using a multi-level quantile regression approach, we find strong heterogeneity in growth risk, particularly between the more vulnerable durable goods sector and the more resilient nondurable...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012510760
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Regularized estimation of structural instability in factor models : the US macroeconomy and the great moderation
Callot, Laurent; Kristensen, Johannes Tang - 2015
This paper shows that the parsimoniously time-varying methodology of Callot and Kristensen (2015) can be applied to factor models. We apply this method to study macroeconomic instability in the US from 1959:1 to 2006:4 with a particular focus on the Great Moderation. Models with parsimoniously...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010532582
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The effect of the great moderation on the US business cycle in a time-varying multivariate trend-cycle model
Creal, Drew; Koopman, Siem Jan; Zivot, Eric - 2008
In this paper we investigate whether the dynamic properties of the U.S. business cycle have changed in the last fifty years. For this purpose we develop a flexible business cycle indicator that is constructed from a moderate set of macroeconomic time series. The coincident economic indicator is...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011376640
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Measuring synchronisation and convergence of business cycles
Koopman, Siem Jan; Azevedo, João Valle e - 2003
This paper investigates business cycle relations among different economies in theEuro area. Cyclical dynamics are explicitly modelled as part of a time series model. Weintroduce mechanisms that allow for increasing or diminishing phase shifts and for time-varyingassociation patterns in different...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011333890