Consumer products and services can often be described as mixtures of ingredients. Examples are the mixture of ingredients in a cocktail and the mixture of different components of waiting time (e.g., in-vehicle and out-of-vehicle travel time) in a transportation setting. Choice experiments may...

A Bayesian dynamic compositional model is introduced that can deal with combining a large set of predictive densities. It extends the mixture of experts and the smoothly mixing regression models by allowing for combination weight dependence across models and time. A compositional model with...

In several scientific fields, like bioinformatics, financial and macro-economics, important theoretical and practical issues exist that involve multimodal data distributions. We propose a Bayesian approach using mixtures distributions to approximate accurately such data distributions. Shape and...

A flexible predictive density combination model is introduced for large financial data sets which allows for dynamic weight learning and model set incompleteness. Dimension reduction procedures allocate the large sets of predictive densities and combination weights to relatively small sets....

Detecting heterogeneity within a population is crucial in many economic and financial applications. Econometrically, this requires a credible determination of multimodality in a given data distribution. We propose a straightforward yet effective technique for mode inference in discrete data...

A flexible predictive density combination is introduced for large financial data sets which allows for model set incompleteness. Dimension reduction procedures that include learning allocate the large sets of predictive densities and combination weights to relatively small subsets. Given the...

We forecast the term structure of U.S. Treasury zero-coupon bond yields by analyzing a range of models that have been used in the literature. We assess the relevance of parameter uncertainty by examining the added value of using Bayesian inference compared to frequentist estimation techniques,...

We investigate the importance of aggregate and consumer-specific or idiosyncratic labour income risk for aggregate consumption changes in the US over the period 1952-2001. Theoretically, the effect of labour income risk on consumption changes is decomposed into an aggregate and into an...