Showing 1 - 10 of 509
short-term forecasting models. These empirical findings have been established for different macroeconomic data sets and … specification is most effective in its forecasting performance. Furthermore, the forecast performances of the different … extended empirical out-of-sample forecasting competition for quarterly growth of gross domestic product in the euro area and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010395082
been satisfactorily answered. We focus on out-of-sample nowcasting, and extend the Bayesian Structural Time Series model …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011987495
This paper proposes a new model-based method to obtain a coincident indicator for the business cycle. A dynamic factor model with trend components and a common cycle component is considered which can be estimated using standard maximum likelihood methods. The multivariate unobserved components...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011334364
The multivariate analysis of a panel of economic and financial time series with mixed frequencies is a challenging problem. The standard solution is to analyze the mix of monthly and quarterly time series jointly by means of a multivariate dynamic model with a monthly time index: artificial...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010391543
Convergence in gross domestic product series of five European countriesis empirically identified using multivariate time series models that arebased on unobserved components with dynamic converging properties.We define convergence in terms of a decrease in dispersion over timeand model this...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011333256
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10001791917
This paper investigates the feasibility of using earlier provisional data to improve the now- and forecasting accuracy … the municipal level. The results demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed approach in improving forecasting …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015062979
We present new results for the likelihood-based analysis of the dynamic factor model that possibly includes intercepts and explanatory variables. The latent factors are modelled by stochastic processes. The idiosyncratic disturbances are specified as autoregressive processes with mutually...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011373811
This paper discusses identification, specification, estimation and forecasting for a general class of periodic … formulations are introduced for exact maximum likelihood estimation, component estimation and forecasting. Identification issues …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011350384
filtering of time-varying volatility, and volatility forecasting. Specifically, we make use of the indirect inference method to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014433826