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We introduce a dynamic Skellam model that measures stochastic volatility from high-frequency tick-by-tick discrete … series per day varies from 1000 to 10,000. Complexities in the intraday dynamics of volatility and in the frequency of trades … intraday volatility shows that the dynamic modified Skellam model provides accurate forecasts compared to alternative modeling …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011295740
In the class of univariate conditional volatility models, the three most popular are the generalized autoregressive … effects on conditional volatility of positive and negative effects of equal magnitude, and possibly also leverage, which is … the negative correlation between returns shocks and subsequent shocks to volatility (see Black 1979). McAleer (2014 …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011688332
The paper develops a novel realized matrix-exponential stochastic volatility model of multivariate returns and realized …. The volatility and co-volatility spillovers are examined via the news impact curves and the impulse response functions … from returns to volatility and co-volatility. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011536626
We introduce a new efficient importance sampler for nonlinear non-Gaussian state space models. We propose a general and efficient likelihood evaluation method for this class of models via the combination of numerical and Monte Carlo integration methods. Our methodology explores the idea that...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011386179
A novel approach to inference for a specific region of the predictive distribution is introduced. An important domain of application is accurate prediction of financial risk measures, where the area of interest is the left tail of the predictive density of logreturns. Our proposed approach...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012057160
accounts for time variation in macroeconomic volatility, known as the great moderation. In particular, we consider an … volatility processes and mixture distributions for the irregular components and the common cycle disturbances enable us to … that time-varying volatility is only present in the a selection of idiosyncratic components while the coefficients driving …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011376640
volatility processes. This is called a GSSF-SV model. We show that conventional MCMC algorithms for this type of model are …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011334849
Of the two most widely estimated univariate asymmetric conditional volatility models, the exponential GARCH (or EGARCH …) specification can capture asymmetry, which refers to the different effects on conditional volatility of positive and negative … shocks to volatility. However, the statistical properties of the (quasi-) maximum likelihood estimator (QMLE) of the EGARCH …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010384390