This paper assesses the performance of a number of long-term interest rate forecast approaches, namely time series … is compared using out of sample forecast errors, where a random walk forecast acts as benchmark. It is found that for … approaches do not outperform the random walk, or a somewhat more sophisticated time series model, on a 3 month forecast horizon …

equilibrium predictions. The main deviations from theory are: a) Subjects under-exploit their bargaining power by being more … probabilities exhibits systematic deviations from theory. This suggests that subjects do not fully grasp the subtle effects …

randomly weighting the original predictors. Using recent results from random matrix theory, we obtain a tight bound on the mean … used to construct a forecast. Second, we discuss random projection regression, where artificial predictors are formed by … squared forecast error for both randomized methods. We identify settings in which one randomized method results in more …

We propose a novel and numerically efficient quantification approach to forecast uncertainty of the real price of oil …, estimation of time-varying forecast biases and facets of miscalibration of individual forecast densities and time-varying inter …-varying forecast uncertainty and risk for the real price of oil over the period 1974-2018. We show that the combination approach …

We propose a novel and numerically efficient quantification approach to forecast uncertainty of the real price of oil …, estimation of time-varying forecast biases and facets of miscalibration of individual forecast densities and time-varying inter …-varying forecast uncertainty and risk for the real price of oil over the period 1974-2018. We show that the combination approach …

forecasts improves the forecast accuracy, and in particular new models with power transformations of weather forecast variables …

earnings forecasters, we see that small adjustments to the model forecasts lead to more forecast accuracy. Based on past track …