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accounts for time variation in macroeconomic volatility, known as the great moderation. In particular, we consider an … volatility processes and mixture distributions for the irregular components and the common cycle disturbances enable us to … that time-varying volatility is only present in the a selection of idiosyncratic components while the coefficients driving …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011376640
forecasting, the authors propose a new factor multivariate stochastic volatility (fMSV) model for realized covariance measures …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010259630
Estimation of the volatility of time series has taken off since the introduction of the GARCH and stochastic volatility … unobserved stochastic volatility, and the varying approaches that have been taken for such estimation.In order to simplify the … comprehension of these estimation methods, the main methods for estimating stochastic volatility are discussed, with focus on their …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011386121
Recessions and expansions are often caused or reinforced by developments in private consumption - the largest component of aggregate demand - which, as a result, varies over the business cycle. As such, an accurate measurement of the cyclical component of consumption and an understanding of its...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014380708
series patterns for currency risk management.Our approach is Bayesian where extensive use is made of Markov chainMonte Carlo … methods. The effects of several model characteristics(unit roots, GARCH, stochastic volatility, heavy tailed …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011302131
volatility processes. This is called a GSSF-SV model. We show that conventional MCMC algorithms for this type of model are …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011334849
subject to stochastic volatility. It enables the disentanglement of dynamic structures in both the mean and the variance of … the observed time series. We develop a simulated maximum likelihood estimation method based on importance sampling and … increased during the 2008 financial crisis while it has recently returned to its pre-crisis level. The extracted volatility …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011809984
exchange rates for currency risk management. Ourapproach is Bayesianwhere extensive use is made of Markov chain Monte Carlo … methods. The effects ofseveral modelcharacteristics (unit roots, GARCH, stochastic volatility, heavy taileddisturbance …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011313921
We investigate the presence of international business cycles in macroeconomic aggregates (output, consumption, investment) using a panel of 60 countries over the period 1961 - 2014. The paper presents a Bayesian stochastic factor selection approach for dynamic factor models with predetermined...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011556201
estimation of static factor models and factor augmented autoregressions using a set of 190 quarterly observations of 144 US …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010532582