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We experimentally investigate how price expectations are formed in a large asset market where subjects' only task is to forecast the future price of a risky asset. The realized prices depend on these expectations. We observe small (6 participants) and large markets (about 100 participants). In...
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We study social learning in a social network setting where agents receive independent noisy signals about the truth …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011801379
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This experiment compares the price dynamics and bubble formation in an asset market with a price adjustment rule in …, recurring bubbles arise, where the price is 3 times larger than the fundamental value, which were not seen in former experiments. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011333057
JMG's ideas of self-fulfilling mistakes. Some of our learning-to-forecast laboratory experiments with human subjects have …This essay links some of my own work on expectations, learning and bounded rationality to the inspiring ideas of Jean …-Michel Grandmont. In particular, my work on consistent expectations and behavioral learning equilibria may be seen as formalizations of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011590425
Different theories of expectation formation and learning usually yield different outcomes for realized market prices in … dynamic models. The purpose of this paper is to investigate expectation formation and learning in a controlled experimental …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011333266
trend-following rule, based upon their relative performance. We also discuss learning-to-forecast laboratory experiments …We discuss recent work on bounded rationality and learning in relation to Soros' principle of reflexivity and stress …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010227330
We develop a simple model that describes individuals’ self-assessments oftheir abilities. We assume that individuals learn about their abilities from appraisalsof others and experience. Our model predicts that if communicationis imperfect, then (i) appraisals of others tend to be too positive,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011348342
and realizations. We discuss three case-studies. Firstly, a New Keynesian macro model with a representative agent learning …-reverting fundamental rule and a trend-following rule, based upon their past performance. The third example concerns learning …-to-forecast laboratory experiments, where under positive feedback individuals coordinate expectations on non-rational, almost self …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010227365
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