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assessed. We propose a novel framework to assessfinancial system risk. Using a dynamic factor framework based on state …-space methods, we model latent macro-financial and credit risk components for a large data setcomprising the U.S., the EU-27 area … risk conditions can significantly and persistently de-couplefrom macro-financial fundamentals. Such decoupling can serve as …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011382067
Empirical measures of world consumption growth risk have failed to rationalize the cross-section of country equity … returns. We propose a new factor, termed "the global consumption factor", to explain the patterns in risk premiums on … from 47 developed and emerging market countries over a four-decade period. Our risk factor reflects changes in the cross …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010362976
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We compute joint sovereign default probabilities as coincident systemic risk indicators. Instead of commonly used CDS … of rolling pairwise correlations do not always yield intuitive systemic risk indicators. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011531096
risk externalities. It focuses on the relativemerit of price versus quantity rules, showing how they target different … incentives for risk creation.When banks differ in credit opportunities, a Pigovian tax on short-term funding is efficient in … containing risk and preserving credit quality, while quantity-based fundingratios are distorsionary. Liquidity buffers are either …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011383222
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counterparties and,consistent with the margin-CAPM, more pronounced for stocks with higher margins. Our results suggest that …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010224773
characterize as "local" and "international" banks. The credit-risk spillovers take place between banks, from the same and from …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011566388
We extend the Hidden Markov Model for defaults of Crowder, Davis, and Giampieri (2005) to include covariates. The covariates enhance the prediction of transition probabilities from high to low default regimes. To estimate the model, we extend the EM estimating equations to account for the time...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011349709