This paper studies empirical issues of one-factor yield curve models. We focus on the models by Ho & Lee (1986), Hull & White (1990) and Moraleda & Vorst (1996). To be consistent in the comparison of the models, we derive them all within the Ritkchen and Sankarasubramanian (1995) framework,...

Recent empirical studies on interest rate derivatives have shown that the volatil- ity structure of interest rates is frequently humped. Mercurio and Moraleda (1996) and Moraleda and Vorst (1996a) have modelled interest rate dynamics in such a way that humped volatility structures are possible...

The term structure of interest rates does not adhere to the expectations hypothesis, possibly due to a risk premium. We consider the implications of a risk premium that arises from endogenous market segmentation driven by variable inflation rates. In the absence of autocorrelation in inflation,...

In this paper I examine various extensions of the Nelson and Siegel (1987) model with the purpose of fitting and forecasting the term structure of interest rates. As expected, I find that using more flexible models leads to a better in-sample fit of the term structure. However, I show that the...

We forecast the term structure of U.S. Treasury zero-coupon bond yields by analyzing a range of models that have been used in the literature. We assess the relevance of parameter uncertainty by examining the added value of using Bayesian inference compared to frequentist estimation techniques,...

The first three factors resulting from a principal components analysis of term structure data are in the literature typically interpreted as driving the level, slope and curvature of the term structure. Using slight generalisations of theorems from total positivity, we present sufficient...