Time varying patterns in US growth are analyzed using various univariate model structures, starting from a naive model structure where all features change every period to a model where the slow variation in the conditional mean and changes in the conditional variance are specified together with...

Many empirical studies have shown that factor models produce relatively accurate forecasts compared to alternative short-term forecasting models. These empirical findings have been established for different macroeconomic data sets and different forecast horizons. However, various specifications...

We use Google search data with the aim of predicting unemployment, CPI and consumer confidence for the US, UK, Canada, Germany and Japan. Google search queries have previously proven valuable in predicting macroeconomic variables in an in-sample context. To our knowledge, the more challenging...

A burgeoning literature has emerged during the last two decades to assess the economic impacts of immigration on host countries. In recent years much research has been at the national level under the assumption that impacts in open regions may dissipate through adjustment processes such as...

Knowledge drives the growth of nations and regions in a competitive space-economy. Hence, we would expect a strong correlation between investments in R&D, knowledge and learning processes, on the one hand, and productivity increases, on the other. However, the empirical evidence shows consistent...