model to be extended with stochastic volatility and heavy tailed disturbances. We develop a flexible estimation method for …

and Hommes (1997). The stabilizing effect of different monetary policies depends on the ecology of forecasting rules, on … agents' sensitivity to differences in forecasting performance and on how aggressively the monetary authority sets the nominal …, expectations rule is part of the ecology of forecasting strategies. …

This paper assesses the performance of a number of long-term interest rate forecast approaches, namely time series … is compared using out of sample forecast errors, where a random walk forecast acts as benchmark. It is found that for … five major OECD countries, namely United States, Germany, United Kingdom, The Netherlands and Japan, the other forecasting …