In this paper we compare the predictive abilility of Stochastic Volatility (SV)models to that of volatility forecasts … implied by option prices. We develop anSV model with implied volatility as an exogeneous var able in the varianceequation … stochastic shocks incorporated in the SVXmodels. The out-of-sample volatility forecasts are evaluated against dailysquared …

common belief, the auction prices for gas storage are mostly affected by the volatility of current market prices rather than … with the volatility of the spot market. This is an intuitive result because storage capacity can serve as an effective …

measured by the variance is significantly larger than the amplitude under RE, implying persistent excess volatility. However …

Although the main interest in the modelling of electricity prices is often on volatility aspects, we argue that … towards volatility features of the time series.For the older electricity market of Nord Pool in Norway, it is found that a …

improved volatility measurements but has also inspired research into their potential value as an information source for … volatility forecasting. In this paper we explore the forecasting value of historical volatility (extracted from daily return … series), of implied volatility (extracted from option pricing data) and of realised volatility (computed as the sum of …

volatility processes. This is called a GSSF-SV model. We show that conventional MCMC algorithms for this type of model are …

The sum of squared intraday returns provides an unbiased and almost error-free measure of ex-post volatility. In this … paper we develop a nonlinear Autoregressive Fractionally Integrated Moving Average (ARFIMA) model for realized volatility …, which accommodates level shifts, day-of-the-week effects, leverage effects and volatility level effects. Applying the model …

In this paper we aim to measure actual volatility within a model-based framework using high-frequency data. In the … at smaller and smaller time intervals. High-frequency returns are used for the computation of realised volatility. Recent … theoretical results have shown that realised volatility is a consistent estimator of actual volatility but when it is subject to …

in the daily retail price for gasoline (taxes excluded) for the period 1996-2004 taking care of volatility clustering by … estimating an EGARCH model. It turns out the volatility process is asymmetrical: an unexpected increase in the producer price has …