profile than bonds, evidence of cyclicality in bond losses need not apply to loans. Based on unique data we show that the …

robust across countries and time periods. Typically, the correlation coefficients at long-run horizons are significantly … negative and the correlation coefficients at short-run horizons are substantially higher. Additionally, there is evidence of … positive correlation at short-run forecast horizons for some countries. …

spreads, we use government bond yield data which provide a longer data history. We show that for the more recent sample period … 2008--2015, joint default probabilities based on CDS and bond yield data yield similar results. For the period 1987 …-2008, only the bond yield data can be used to shed light on European sovereign systemic stress. We also show that simple averages …

market returns impact the state transition probabilities. The impact, however, is not uniform across industries. We only find …