macroeconomic models by i) incorporating financial frictions, ii) relaxing the requirement of rational expectations, and iii … dynamic stochastic general equilibrium and vector autoregression models in out-of-sample forecasting. We then demonstrate that … persistent rise in inflation following the COVID-19 recession. …

specification is most effective in its forecasting performance. Furthermore, the forecast performances of the different … short-term forecasting models. These empirical findings have been established for different macroeconomic data sets and … different forecast horizons. However, various specifications of the factor model exist and it is a topic of debate which …

provide a theoretical justification of the use of random subspace methods and show their usefulness when forecasting monthly … used to construct a forecast. Second, we discuss random projection regression, where artificial predictors are formed by … squared forecast error for both randomized methods. We identify settings in which one randomized method results in more …

wholesale power markets have only recently been deregulated. We introduce the weather factor into well-known forecasting models … forecasts improves the forecast accuracy, and in particular new models with power transformations of weather forecast variables …

consider the implications of a risk premium that arises from endogenous market segmentation driven by variable inflation rates …The term structure of interest rates does not adhere to the expectations hypothesis, possibly due to a risk premium. We …. In the absence of autocorrelation in inflation, the risk premium is constant. If inflation is correlated, however, the …

the Phillips curve over time. We consider different specifications and different measures for inflation. Furthermore, we ….S. headline inflation has remained empirically relevant over the years. …