This paper examines whether the ECB's Quantitative Easing (QE) policy is causing government bond prices to deviate from … series introduced by Phillips et al. (2015). We extend this methodology and apply it to government bond prices. The results … show that the QE policy substantially inflated government bond prices in Euro Area countries to such an extent that bond …

spreads, we use government bond yield data which provide a longer data history. We show that for the more recent sample period … 2008--2015, joint default probabilities based on CDS and bond yield data yield similar results. For the period 1987 …-2008, only the bond yield data can be used to shed light on European sovereign systemic stress. We also show that simple averages …

reflect expectations of this event. There may exist multiple bond prices compatible with a rational expectations equilibrium …