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We develop a new targeted maximum likelihood estimation method that provides improved forecasting for misspecified linear autoregressive models. The method weighs data points in the observed sample and is useful in the presence of data generating processes featuring structural breaks, complex...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012416341
We study the dynamic impact of Covid-19, economic mobility, and containment policy shocks. We use Bayesian panel structural vector autoregressions with daily data for 44 countries, identified through sign and zero restrictions. Incidence and mobility shocks raise cases and deaths significantly...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012434050
This paper develops a discrete-time epidemiological model for the spread of crises across sectors in the United States for the period 1952-2015. It is the first to use an epidemiological approach with macroeconomic (Flow of Funds) data. An extension of the usual one-period Markov model to a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011794328
I show that the irreversibility of dying coupled with gradual information acquisition over time on the likely arrival and eventual effectiveness of vaccines confers a real option value to lockdown strategies that delay the incidence of a pandemic.The case for lockdown strategies becomes stronger...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012510750
time preference are not considered simultaneously. We correct for differential mortality risk, risk aversion and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011373818
are mechanisms through which SES, health and mortality are related. Our model predicts a widening and possibly a …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011381036
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10001412128
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008654181
We present a theory of human capital, with its two most essential components, health capital and, what we term, skill … capital, endogenously determined within the model. Using the theory, and a calibrated version of it, we uncover and highlight …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013172987
We analyze the effect of economic conditions early in life on individual mortality rate later in life, using business … indicators. We correct for secular changes over time and other mortality determinants. We nonparametrically compare those born in … a recession to those born in the preceding boom, and we estimate duration models where the individual's mortality rate …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011334361