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The sum of squared intraday returns provides an unbiased and almost error-free measure of ex-post volatility. In this … paper we develop a nonlinear Autoregressive Fractionally Integrated Moving Average (ARFIMA) model for realized volatility …, which accommodates level shifts, day-of-the-week effects, leverage effects and volatility level effects. Applying the model …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011335205
improved ex-post volatility measurements but has also inspired research into their potential value as an informa-tion source … for longer horizon volatility forecasts. In this paper we explore the forecasting value of these high fre-quency series in … conjunction with a variety of volatility models for returns on the Standard & Poor's 100 stock index. We consider two so …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011326944
In this paper we test for (Generalized) AutoRegressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity [(G)ARCH] in daily data on 22 exchange rates and 13 stock market indices using the standard Lagrange Multiplier [LM] test for GARCH and a LM test that is resistant to patches of additive outliers. The data span...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011284080
This paper considers spot variance path estimation from datasets of intraday high frequency asset prices in the presence of diurnal variance patterns, jumps, leverage effects and microstructure noise. We rely on parametric and nonparametric methods. The estimated spot variance path can be used...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011379469
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Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009720703
The paper develops a novel realized matrix-exponential stochastic volatility model of multivariate returns and realized …. The volatility and co-volatility spillovers are examined via the news impact curves and the impulse response functions … from returns to volatility and co-volatility. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011536626
The energy sector is one of the most important in the world, so that time series fluctuations in leading energy sources … intra-day data. The paper analyses the relationships among the S&P 500 Index and futures prices, returns and volatility of … intra-day temporal aggregation in examining returns relationships and volatility spillovers across the equity and energy …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011441584
We propose a new model for dynamic volatilities and correlations of skewed and heavy-tailed data. Our model endows the Generalized Hyperbolic distribution with time-varying parameters driven by the score of the observation density function. The key novelty in our approach is the fact that the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011386468
average daily returns, even though the volatility is virtually unchanged when the frequency is lower. The volatility from the … highest to the lowest frequency is about 30% lower as compared with the buy-and-hold strategy volatility, but the average … returns approach the buy-and-hold returns when frequency is lower. The 30% reduction in volatility appears if we invest …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011848115