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Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10000122460
Estimation of the volatility of time series has taken off since the introduction of the GARCH and stochastic volatility … unobserved stochastic volatility, and the varying approaches that have been taken for such estimation. In order to simplify the … comprehension of these estimation methods, the main methods for estimating stochastic volatility are discussed, with focus on their …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011386124
This paper features an analysis of the cointegration relationships among agricultural commodity, ethanol and Cushing … cointegration and Markov-switching VECM and Impulse Response Analysis, confirms that these markets have significant linkages which … vary according to whether they are in low or high volatility regimes. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011479769
We revisit Wintenberger (2013) on the continuous invertibility of the EGARCH(1,1) model. We note that the definition of continuous invertibility adopted in Wintenberger (2013) may not always be sufficient to deliver strong consistency of the QMLE. We also take the opportunity to provide other...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011401308
Accurate prediction of the frequency of extreme events is of primary importance in many financialapplications such as Value-at-Risk (VaR) analysis. We propose a semi-parametric method for VaRevaluation. The largest risks are modelled parametrically, while smaller risks are captured by the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010533206
methods. The effects of several model characteristics(unit roots, GARCH, stochastic volatility, heavy tailed …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011302131
The sum of squared intraday returns provides an unbiased and almost error-free measure of ex-post volatility. In this … paper we develop a nonlinear Autoregressive Fractionally Integrated Moving Average (ARFIMA) model for realized volatility …, which accommodates level shifts, day-of-the-week effects, leverage effects and volatility level effects. Applying the model …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011335205
in the daily retail price for gasoline (taxes excluded) for the period 1996-2004 taking care of volatility clustering by … estimating an EGARCH model. It turns out the volatility process is asymmetrical: an unexpected increase in the producer price has …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011343273
methods. The effects ofseveral modelcharacteristics (unit roots, GARCH, stochastic volatility, heavy taileddisturbance …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011313921
improved ex-post volatility measurements but has also inspired research into their potential value as an informa-tion source … for longer horizon volatility forecasts. In this paper we explore the forecasting value of these high fre-quency series in … conjunction with a variety of volatility models for returns on the Standard & Poor's 100 stock index. We consider two so …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011326944