We analyze the dynamics of Chinese comparative advantage as measured by export shares and the Balassa index using 3-digit and 4-digit sectors for the period 1970 – 1997. We use novel tools to identify periods of rapid structural change and the persistence of comparative advantage, such as...

The computation of various risk metrics is essential to the quantitative risk management of variable annuity guaranteed benefits. The current market practice of Monte Carlo simulation often requires intensive computations, which can be very costly for insurance companies to implement and take so...

We examine the impact of temporal and portfolio aggregation on the quality of Value-at-Risk (VaR) forecasts over a horizon of ten trading days for a well-diversified portfolio of stocks, bonds and alternative investments. The VaR forecasts are constructed based on daily, weekly or biweekly...

Using a limiting approach to portfolio credit risk, we obtain analyticexpressions for the tail behavior of the distribution of credit losses. We showthat in many cases of practical interest the distribution of these losses haspolynomial ('fat') rather than exponential ('thin') tails. Our...

We solve for the optimal portfolio allocation in a setting where both conditional correlation and theclustering of extreme events are considered. We demonstrate that there is a substantial welfare loss indisregarding tail dependence, even when dynamic conditional correlation has been accounted...