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six-variable system supports time variation in US monetary policy shock identification. In the sample-dominating first … regime, systematic monetary policy follows a Taylor rule extended by the term spread and is effective in curbing inflation … stimulus, features the liquidity effect, and is complemented by a pure term spread shock. Absent the specific monetary policy …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014422351
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008670039
shock, or they exclude contemporaneous values of these variables from the monetary authority's information set. This paper … advantage that it makes the exercise less vulnerable to potential misidentification of the US monetary policy shock. The results …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011382001
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010191084
We study the dynamic impact of Covid-19, economic mobility, and containment policy shocks. We use Bayesian panel structural vector autoregressions with daily data for 44 countries, identified through sign and zero restrictions. Incidence and mobility shocks raise cases and deaths significantly...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012434050
This paper investigates the international spillovers of government debt and the associated risk of inflation within a … inflation at the cost of the funded country. In response to these conflicting interests about inflation, inflation risk may rise … with the level of debt in the PAYG country. Higher inflation risk harms both countries. Actually, in contrast to the debt …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011382085
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008746634
We analyse the determinants of unemployment persistence in four OECDcountries byestimating a structural Bayesian VAR with an informative priorbased on an insiders/outsiders model. We explicitly insert unemployment ben-efits and labour taxes so that our identification is not affected by the Faust...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011327831
To investigate how economies, financial markets or institutions can deal with stress, we nowadays often analyze the effects of shocks conditional on a recession or a bear market. MSVAR models are ideally suited for such analyses because they combine gradual movement with sudden switches. In this...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012621564
We propose a Bayesian infinite hidden Markov model to estimate time- varying parameters in a vector autoregressive model. The Markov structure allows for heterogeneity over time while accounting for state-persistence. By modelling the transition distribution as a Dirichlet process mixture model,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011569148