Pure time series-based tests fail to find empirical support formonetary exchange rate models. In this paper we apply pooled timeseries estimation on a forward-looking monetary model, resulting inparameter estimates which are in compliance with the underlyingtheory. Based on a panel version of...

This paper investigates whether privatization in emerging economies has a significant indirect effect on local stock market development through the resolution of political risk. We argue that a sustained privatization program represents a major political test that gradually resolves uncertainty...

The failure to describe the time series behaviour of most realexchange rates as temporary deviations from fixedlong-term means may be due to time variation of the equilibriathemselves, see Engel (2000). We implement thisidea using an unobserved components model and decompose theobservations on...

We study the global macroeconomic effects of tariffs using a multiregional, general equilibrium model, EAGLE, that we extend by introducing US tariffs against Chinese imports into the US, and subsequently Chinese tariffs against US imports into China, consistent with recent trade policies by the...

Previous research on firm performance does not adequately account for the interrelatedness of a firm's professional connections, political ties, and family business-group affiliation. Many widely-cited findings may therefore be subject to confounding bias. To address this problem, we adopt a...

Signed customer order flow correlates with permanent price changes in equity and nonequity markets. We exploit macro news events in the 30Y treasury futures market to identify causality from customer flow to riskfree rates. We remove the positive feedback trading part and establish that, in the...

This paper tests the policitcal dimensions of the presidential cycle effect in U.S. financial markets. The presidential cycle effect states that average stock market returns are significantly higher in the last two years compared to the first two years of a presidential term. We confirm the...

We develop a new likelihood-based approach to sign trades in the absence of quotes. It is equally efficient as existing MCMC methods, but more than 10 times faster. It can deal with the occurrence of multiple trades at the same time, and noisily observed trade times. We apply this method to a...

This paper considers spot variance path estimation from datasets of intraday high frequency asset prices in the presence of diurnal variance patterns, jumps, leverage effects and microstructure noise. We rely on parametric and nonparametric methods. The estimated spot variance path can be used...

Most stock exchange regulators around the world reacted to the 2007-2009 crisis byimposing bans or regulatory constraints on short-selling. Short-selling restrictions wereimposed and lifted at different dates in different countries, often applied to different sets ofstocks and featured different...