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Measuring financial cycles in a model-based analysis : empirical evidence for the United States and the euro area
Galati, Gabriele; Hindrayanto, Irma; Koopman, Siem Jan; … - 2016
largest euro area countries over the period 1970 to 2014. We find that credit, the credit-to-GDP ratio and house prices have …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011456728
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Tracking growth and the business cycle : a stochastic common cycle model for the Euro area
Azevedo, João Valle e; Koopman, Siem Jan; Rua, António - 2003
This paper proposes a new model-based method to obtain a coincident indicator for the business cycle. A dynamic factor model with trend components and a common cycle component is considered which can be estimated using standard maximum likelihood methods. The multivariate unobserved components...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011334364
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Score-driven systemic risk signaling for European sovereign bond yields and CDS spreads
Lange, Rutger-Jan; Lucas, André; Siegmann, Adriaan Hendrik - 2016
We compute joint sovereign default probabilities as coincident systemic risk indicators. Instead of commonly used CDS spreads, we use government bond yield data which provide a longer data history. We show that for the more recent sample period 2008--2015, joint default probabilities based on...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011531096
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Credit cycles and macro fundamentals
Koopman, Siem Jan; Kräussl, Roman; Lucas, André; … - 2006
We study the relation between the credit cycle and macro-economic fundamentals in an intensity-based framework. Using … the credit cycle from the micro rating data. We relate this cycle to the business cycle, bank lending conditions, and … financial market variables. In line with earlier studies, these variables appear to explain part of the credit cycle. As our …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011348707
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Cyclicality in losses on bank loans
Keijsers, Bart; Diris, Bart; Kole, Erik - 2015
Cyclicality in the losses of bank loans is important for bank risk management. Because loans have a different risk profile than bonds, evidence of cyclicality in bond losses need not apply to loans. Based on unique data we show that the default rate and loss given default of bank loans share a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010515860
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Do information contagion and business model similarities explain bank credit risk commonalities?
Wang, Dieter; Lelyveld, Iman van; Schaumburg, Julia - 2018
Eurozone. Incorporating the network information into the structural model for bank credit spreads increases explanatory power …This paper revisits the credit spread puzzle in bank CDS spreads from the perspective of information contagion. The … puzzle, first detected in corporate bonds, consists of two stylized facts: Structural determinants of credit risk not only …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011949150
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Moments, shocks and spillovers in Markov switching VAR models
Dijk, Dick van; Kole, Erik - 2021
To investigate how economies, financial markets or institutions can deal with stress, we nowadays often analyze the effects of shocks conditional on a recession or a bear market. MSVAR models are ideally suited for such analyses because they combine gradual movement with sudden switches. In this...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012621564
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Transmission of government spending shocks in the Euro area : time variation and driving forces
Kirchner, Markus; Cimadomo, Jacopo; Hauptmeier, Sebastian - 2010
multipliers. We find that a higher ratio of credit to households over GDP, a smaller share of government investment and a larger …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011380027
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Market integration dynamics and asymptotic price convergence in distribution
García-Hiernaux, Alfredo; Guerrero, David E.; McAleer, … - 2013
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010191280
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A dynamic yield curve model with stochastic volatility and non-Gaussian interactions : an empirical study of non-standard monetary policy in the euro area
Mesters, Geert; Schwaab, Bernd; Koopman, Siem Jan - 2014
We develop an econometric methodology for the study of the yield curve and its interactions with measures of non-standard monetary policy during possibly turbulent times. The yield curve is modeled by the dynamic Nelson-Siegel model while the monetary policy measurements are modeled as...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010362975