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Censored posterior and predictive likelihood in Bayesian left-tail prediction for accurate value at risk estimation
Gatarek, Lukasz; Hoogerheide, Lennart; Hooning, Koen; … - 2013
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009756308
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Choosing expected shortfall over VaR in Basel III using stochastic dominance
Chang, Chia-Lin; Jiménez-Martín, Juan-Ángel; … - 2015
Bank risk managers follow the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (BCBS) recommendations that recently proposed shifting the quantitative risk metrics system from Value-at-Risk (VaR) to Expected Shortfall (ES). The Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (2013, p. 3) noted that: "a number of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011431395
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A stochastic dominance approach to the Basel III dilemma : expected shortfall or VaR?
Chang, Chia-Lin; Jiménez-Martín, Juan-Ángel; … - 2015
The Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (BCBS) (2013) recently proposed shifting the quantitative risk metrics system from Value-at-Risk (VaR) to Expected Shortfall (ES). The BCBS (2013) noted that - a number of weaknesses have been identified with using VaR for determining regulatory capital...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010532611
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Forecasting the volatility of Nikkei 225 futures
Asai, Manabu; McAleer, Michael - 2017 - Revised: January 2017
For forecasting volatility of futures returns, the paper proposes an indirect method based on the relationship between … futures and the underlying asset for the returns and time-varying volatility. For volatility forecasting, the paper considers … the stochastic volatility model with asymmetry and long memory, using high frequency data for the underlying asset …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011590424
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Forecasting volatility with Copula-based time series models
Sokolinskiy, Oleg; Dijk, Dick van - 2011
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009720755
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Asymmetries in conditional mean and variance : modelling stock returns by asMA-asQGARCH
Brännäs, Kurt; Gooijer, Jan G. de - 2000
The asymmetric moving average model (asMA) is extended to allow forasymmetric quadratic conditional heteroskedasticity (asQGARCH). Theasymmetric parametrization of the conditional variance encompassesthe quadratic GARCH model of Sentana (1995). We introduce a framework fortesting asymmetries in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011303289
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GARCH models for daily stock returns : impact of estimation frequency on value-at-risk and expected shortfall forecasts
Ardia, David; Hoogerheide, Lennart - 2013
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010191413
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What do professional forecasters actually predict?
Nibbering, Didier; Paap, Richard; Wel, Michel van der - 2015
In this paper we study what professional forecasters actually explain. We use spectral analysis and state space modeling to decompose economic time series into a trend, a business-cycle, and an irregular component. To examine which components are captured by professional forecasters we regress...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011305773
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Information flows around the globe : predicting opening gaps from overnight foreign stock price patterns
Gooijer, Jan G. de; Diks, Cees G. H.; Gatarek, Lukasz T. - 2009
This paper describes a forecasting exercise of close-to-open returns on major global stock indices, based on price patterns from foreign markets that have become available overnight. As the close-to-open gap is a scalar response variable to a functional variable, it is natural to focus on...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011379456
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Improving density forecasts and value-at-risk estimates by combining densities
Opschoor, Anne; Dijk, Dick van; Wel, Michel van der - 2014 - This version: July 15, 2014
univariate volatility models (including HEAVY and Realized GARCH models), using daily returns from the S&P 500, DJIA, FTSE and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010384112