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improved ex-post volatility measurements but has also inspired research into their potential value as an informa-tion source … for longer horizon volatility forecasts. In this paper we explore the forecasting value of these high fre-quency series in … conjunction with a variety of volatility models for returns on the Standard & Poor's 100 stock index. We consider two so …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011326944
We experimentally investigate how price expectations are formed in a large asset market where subjects' only task is to forecast the future price of a risky asset. The realized prices depend on these expectations. We observe small (6 participants) and large markets (about 100 participants). In...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011979625
Traditional finance is built on the rationality paradigm. This chapter discusses simple models from an alternative approach in which financial markets are viewed as complex evolutionary systems. Agents are boundedly rational and base their investment decisions upon market forecasting heuristics....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011376458
. One is a call market experiment in which participants trade assets with each other. The other is a learning …-to-forecast experiment in which participants only forecast future prices, while the trade, which is based on these forecasts, is computerized …. Each experiment comprises three treatments that vary the amount of information about the fundamental value that …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011932581
We investigate expectation formation in a controlled experimental en-vironment. Subjects are asked to predict the price in a standard asset pricingmodel. They do not have knowledge of the underlying market equilibrium equa-tions, but they know all past realized prices and their own predictions....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011333274
measured by the variance is significantly larger than the amplitude under RE, implying persistent excess volatility. However …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011333266
This experiment compares the price dynamics and bubble formation in an asset market with a price adjustment rule in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011333057
The sum of squared intraday returns provides an unbiased and almost error-free measure of ex-post volatility. In this … paper we develop a nonlinear Autoregressive Fractionally Integrated Moving Average (ARFIMA) model for realized volatility …, which accommodates level shifts, day-of-the-week effects, leverage effects and volatility level effects. Applying the model …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011335205
relationship between the S&P500 Composite Index and the Volatility Index (VIX), but few empirical studies have focused on the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011441620
We estimate a dynamic asset pricing model characterized by heterogeneous boundedly rational agents. The fundamental value of the risky asset is publicly available to all agents, but they have different beliefs about the persistence of deviations of stock prices from the fundamental benchmark. An...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011343265