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Secular stagnation, rational bubbles, and fiscal policy
Teulings, Coen N. - 2016
It is well known that rational bubbles can be sustained in balanced growth path of a deterministic economy when the … return to capital r is equal to the growth rate g. When there is a lack of stores of value, bubbles can implement an … capital. Then, bubbles further efficiency, though they cannot implement first best. While bubbles can only be sustained when r …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011540632
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Identifying booms and busts in house prices under heterogeneous expectations
Bolt, Wilko; Demertzis, Maria; Diks, Cees G. H.; … - 2014
identify temporary house price bubbles, amplified by trend extrapolation, and crashes reinforced by fundamentalists. The …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010465137
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Booms, busts and behavioural heterogeneity in stock prices
Hommes, Cars H.; Veld, Daan in't - 2015 - This draft: July 2015
We empirically evaluate a behavioural model with boundedly rational traders who disagree about the persistence of deviations from the fundamental stock price. Fundamentalist traders believe in mean-reversion, while chartists extrapolate trends. Agents gradually switch between the two rules,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011301214
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Bubbles, crashes and information contagion in large-group asset market experiments
Hommes, Cars H.; Kopányi-Peuker, Anita; Sonnemans, Joep - 2019
". We observe both stable markets and large bubbles for both small and large markets. The data analysis shows no differences … successfully drives prices back towards the fundamental, but we observe very large bubbles in which the news apparently has no …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011979625
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Spillover dynamics for systemic risk measurement using spatial financial time series models
Blasques, Francisco; Koopman, Siem Jan; Lucas, André; … - 2014
We introduce a new model for time-varying spatial dependence. The model extends the well-known static spatial lag model. All parameters can be estimated conveniently by maximum likelihood. We establish the theoretical properties of the model and show that the maximum likelihood estimator for the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010391531
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Exploiting spillovers to forecast crashes
Gresnigt, Francine; Kole, Erik; Franses, Philip Hans - 2015
We develop Hawkes models in which events are triggered through self as well as cross-excitation. We examine whether incorporating cross-excitation improves the forecasts of extremes in asset returns compared to only self-excitation. The models are applied to US stocks, bonds and dollar exchange...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011376256
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Financial fragility, sovereign default risk and the limits to commercial bank bail-outs
Wijnbergen, Sweder van; Kwaak, Christiaan van der - 2013
We analyse the poisonous interaction between bank rescues, financial fragility and sovereign debt discounts. In our model balance sheet constrained financial intermediaries finance both capital expenditure of intermediate goods producers and government deficits. The financial intermediaries face...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010224776
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Financial fragility and the fiscal multiplier
Wijnbergen, Sweder van; Kwaak, Christiaan van der - 2014
We investigate the effectiveness of "Keynesian" fiscal stimuli when government deficits and debt rollovers are (possibly partially) financed by balance sheet constrained financial intermediaries. Because financial intermediaries operate under a leverage constraint, deficit financing of fiscal...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010226967
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Fiscal deficits, financial fragility, and the effectiveness of government policies
Kirchner, Markus; Wijnbergen, Sweder van - 2012
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010191012
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Long-term government debt, financial fragility and sovereign default risk
Kwaak, Christiaan van der; Wijnbergen, Sweder van - 2013
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010191409