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Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009765842
In this paper we study what professional forecasters actually explain. We use spectral analysis and state space modeling to decompose economic time series into a trend, a business-cycle, and an irregular component. To examine which components are captured by professional forecasters we regress...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011305773
We develop an agent-based model for the euro area that fulfils widely recommended requirements for nextgeneration macroeconomic models by i) incorporating financial frictions, ii) relaxing the requirement of rational expectations, and iii) including heterogeneous agents. Using macroeconomic and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014233385
probability density function for future values of the variables of interest. At the same time combinations of forecast densities …-data sets. Given this increased relevance of forecast density combinations, the genesis and evolution of this approach, both … history and evolution of forecast density combination methods, together with their potential and benefits, are illustrated in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011895935
We introduce a Combined Density Nowcasting (CDN) approach to Dynamic Factor Models (DFM) that in a coherent way accounts for time-varying uncertainty of several model and data features in order to provide more accurate and complete density nowcasts. The combination weights are latent random...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010465155
area, the United States and Japan. In particular, incorporating survey forecast information helps to reduce the uncertainty …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011809970
We assess the predictive ability of 15 economic uncertainty measures in a real-time out-of-sample forecasting exercise for the quantiles of The Conference Board's coincident economic index and its components (industrial production, employment, personal income, and manufacturing and trade sales)....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013375365
In the past, many refinements have been proposed to select equilibria in cheap talk games. Usually, these refinements were motivated by a discussion of how rational agents would reason in some particular cheap talk games. In this paper, we propose a new refinement and stability measure that is...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010477113
Currently no refinement exists that successfully selects equilibria across a wider range of Cheap Talk games. We propose a generalization of refinements based on credible deviations, such as neologism proofness and announcement proofness. According to our Average Credible Deviation Criterion...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011383193
We analyze communication about the social returns to investment in a public good. We model two agents who have private information about these returns as well as their own taste for cooperation, or social preferences. Before deciding to contribute or not, each agent submits an unverifiable...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011801387