We analyse the determinants of unemployment persistence in four OECDcountries byestimating a structural Bayesian VAR with an informative priorbased on an insiders/outsiders model. We explicitly insert unemployment ben-efits and labour taxes so that our identification is not affected by the Faust...

Critics of modern macroeconomics often raise concerns about unwarranted welfare conclusions and data mining. This paper illustrates these concerns with a thought experiment, based on the debate in environmental economics about the appropriate discount rate in climate change analyses: I set up an...

In the analysis of the credit crisis of 2007-2010 a clear distinction should be made between (i) the initial shock; (ii) the propagation and amplification of the initial shock to the systemic crisis of the financial markets; and (iii) the transmission of the credit crisis to the real economic...

Exchange market pressure (EMP) measures the pressure on a currency to depreciate. It adds to the actual depreciation a weighted combination of policy instruments used to ward off depreciation, such as interest rates and foreign exchange interventions, where the weights are their effectiveness....

Since the Eurozone Crisis of 2010-12, a critical debate on the viability of a currency union has focused on the role of a fiscal union in adjusting for country heterogeneity. However, a fully-fledged fiscal union may not be politically feasible. This paper develops a two-country general...

We empirically investigate why wholesale funding is fragile by providing the first study of how individual banks borrow and lend in the euro unsecured and secured interbank market. Consistent with theories in which lenders enforce market discipline by monitoring counterparty credit risk and...

Price-level targeting (PLT) is optimal under the fully-informed rational expectations (FIRE) benchmark but lacks empirical support. Given the hurdles to the implementation of macroeconomic field experiments, we utilize a laboratory group experiment - where expectations are elicited from human...

The Fed's policy rule switches during the different phases of the business cycle. This finding is established using a dynamic mixture model to estimate regime-dependent Taylor-type rules on US quarterly data from 1960 to 2021. Instead of exogenously partitioning the data based on tenures of the...

In this paper we identify the effects of ageing on the relative price of nontradeables versus tradeables. We consider two cases. In a first specification, age effects only account for short-run dynamics. An alternative case allows for permanent age effects. Estimating the respective cases by...