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In this paper we study what professional forecasters actually explain. We use spectral analysis and state space modeling to decompose economic time series into a trend, a business-cycle, and an irregular component. To examine which components are captured by professional forecasters we regress...
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We introduce a Combined Density Nowcasting (CDN) approach to Dynamic Factor Models (DFM) that in a coherent way accounts for time-varying uncertainty of several model and data features in order to provide more accurate and complete density nowcasts. The combination weights are latent random...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010465155
A flexible predictive density combination model is introduced for large financial data sets which allows for dynamic weight learning and model set incompleteness. Dimension reduction procedures allocate the large sets of predictive densities and combination weights to relatively small sets....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012816959
probability density function for future values of the variables of interest. At the same time combinations of forecast densities …-data sets. Given this increased relevance of forecast density combinations, the genesis and evolution of this approach, both … history and evolution of forecast density combination methods, together with their potential and benefits, are illustrated in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011895935
A flexible predictive density combination is introduced for large financial data sets which allows for model set incompleteness. Dimension reduction procedures that include learning allocate the large sets of predictive densities and combination weights to relatively small subsets. Given the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013332662
of the predictive densities. For illustrative purposes we apply it to combine White Noise and GARCH models to forecast …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011386476
applied to quarterly and monthly US inflation in an empirical study. We find that the persistence of quarterly inflation has … and density forecasts for monthly US inflation. …
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