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Comonotonic approximations of risk measures for variable annuity guaranteed benefits with dynamic policyholder behavior

Feng, Runhuan; Jing, Xiaochen; Dhaene, Jan - 2015

The computation of various risk metrics is essential to the quantitative risk management of variable annuity guaranteed benefits. The current market practice of Monte Carlo simulation often requires intensive computations, which can be very costly for insurance companies to implement and take so...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010464782

Forecasting day-ahead electricity prices : utilizing hourly prices

Raviv, Eran; Bouwman, Kees E.; Dijk, Dick van - 2013

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009765836

Strong stochastic bounds for the stationary distribution of a class of multicomponent performability models

Taylor, P. G.; Dijk, Nicolaas M. van - 1994

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10000151658

Tail distribution of the maximum of correlated Gaussian random variables

Botev, Zdravko I.; Mandjes, Michel; Ridder, Ad - 2015

In this article we consider the efficient estimation of the tail distribution of the maximum of correlated normal random variables. We show that the currently recommended Monte Carlo estimator has difficulties in quantifying its precision, because its sample variance estimator is an inefficient...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011431354

Flexible mixture-amount models for business and industry using Gaussian processes

Ruseckaite, Aiste; Fok, Dennis; Goos, Peter - 2016

Many products and services can be described as mixtures of ingredients whose proportions sum to one. Specialized models have been developed for linking the mixture proportions to outcome variables, such as preference, quality and liking. In many scenarios, only the mixture proportions matter for...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011531150

A weak bifurcation theory for discrete time stochastic dynamical systems

Diks, Cees G. H.; Wagener, Florian Oskar Ottokar - 2006

This article presents a bifurcation theory of smooth stochastic dynamical systems that are governed by everywhere … of the system. By introducing a weak equivalence notion of these dependence ratios, we arrive at a bifurcation theory for … which in the compact case, the set of stable (non-bifurcating) systems is open and dense. The theory is illustrated with …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011349208

Estimating systematic continuous-time trends in recidivism using a non-Gaussian panel data model

Koopman, Siem Jan; Lucas, André; Ooms, Marius; … - 2007

We model panel data of crime careers of juveniles from a Dutch Judicial Juvenile Institution. The data are decomposed into a systematic and an individual-specific component, of which the systematic component reflects the general time-varying conditions including the criminological climate....

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011372520

Long memory modelling of inflation with stochastic variance and structural breaks

Bos, Charles S.; Koopman, Siem Jan; Ooms, Marius - 2007

We investigate changes in the time series characteristics of postwar U.S. inflation. In a model-based analysis the conditional mean of inflation is specified by a long memory autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average process and the conditional variance is modelled by a stochastic...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011373822

Seasonality with trend and cycle interactions in unobserved components models

Koopman, Siem Jan; Lee, Kai Ming - 2008

Unobserved components time series models decompose a time series into a trend, a season, a cycle, an irregular disturbance, and possibly other components. These models have been successfully applied to many economic time series. The standard assumption of a linear model, often appropriate after...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011374413

Model-based estimation of high frequency jump diffusions with microstructure noise and stochastic volatility

Bos, Charles S. - 2008

When analysing the volatility related to high frequency financial data, mostly non-parametric approaches based on realised or bipower variation are applied. This article instead starts from a continuous time diffusion model and derives a parametric analog at high frequency for it, allowing...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011374428

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