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The sum of squared intraday returns provides an unbiased and almost error-free measure of ex-post volatility. In this paper we develop a nonlinear Autoregressive Fractionally Integrated Moving Average (ARFIMA) model for realized volatility, which accommodates level shifts, day-of-the-week...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011335205
Modelling covariance structures is known to suffer from the curse of dimensionality. In order to avoid this problem for forecasting, the authors propose a new factor multivariate stochastic volatility (fMSV) model for realized covariance measures that accommodates asymmetry and long memory....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010259630
momentum strategy. The estimation of this modeling and strategy approach can be done using an extended and modified version of … the forecast combination methodology of Casarin, Grassi, Ravazzolo and Van Dijk(2016). Given the complexity of the non …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011563065
the inclusion of realized variances largely accounts for the improvement in statistical forecast performance (between 65 …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015064180
earnings forecasters, we see that small adjustments to the model forecasts lead to more forecast accuracy. Based on past track …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010490078
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010191299
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10000972453
biases can be inferred from the response of forecast errors to past news. Empirically, biases are measured by flexibly … estimating the impulse response function of forecast errors. The framework does not require precise knowledge of the true data …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011869992
forecast the future price of a risky asset. The realized prices depend on these expectations. We observe small (6 participants …) and large markets (about 100 participants). In large markets the influence of an individual forecast on the realized price …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011979625
The asymmetric moving average model (asMA) is extended to allow forasymmetric quadratic conditional heteroskedasticity (asQGARCH). Theasymmetric parametrization of the conditional variance encompassesthe quadratic GARCH model of Sentana (1995). We introduce a framework fortesting asymmetries in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011303289