Showing 1 - 10 of 639
To investigate how economies, financial markets or institutions can deal with stress, we nowadays often analyze the effects of shocks conditional on a recession or a bear market. MSVAR models are ideally suited for such analyses because they combine gradual movement with sudden switches. In this...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012621564
Recessions and expansions are often caused or reinforced by developments in private consumption - the largest component of aggregate demand - which, as a result, varies over the business cycle. As such, an accurate measurement of the cyclical component of consumption and an understanding of its...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014380708
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10000944378
expected earnings shock and its volatility, and establish properties of investor behavior on the stock price and its volatility … subsequent recovery. We assume that the earnings shock of an asset follows a random walk model with and without drift to … incorporate the impact of financial crises. We further assume the earning shock follows an exponential family distribution to take …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011441491
Hafner and Herwartz (2006) analysis of multivariate GARCH models using volatility impulse response analysis. We use two sets … of data, daily realized volatility estimates taken from the Oxford Man RV library, running from the beginning of 2000 to …) and the subsequent European Sovereign Debt Crisis (ESDC). The spillover index captures the transmission of volatility to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011556166
using volatility impulse response analysis. The data set features ten years of daily returns series for the New York Stock … independent shocks on volatility through time, while avoiding typical orthogonalization and ordering problems. Volatility impulse … response functions (VIRF) provide information about the impact of independent shocks on volatility. HHś VIRF extends a …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011301206
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009008700
We derive a real gravity equation and gain several new insights that were hidden in the nominal specification used so far. Most importantly, the real effective exchange rate (REER) of the exporter and, via the importer's terms of trade, also the importer's REER matter, and we can identify the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011791519
The failure to describe the time series behaviour of most realexchange rates as temporary deviations from fixedlong-term means may be due to time variation of the equilibriathemselves, see Engel (2000). We implement thisidea using an unobserved components model and decompose theobservations on...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011318578
volatility clustering, as is typically the case for financial time series such as exchange rate returns. Our claim builds on … methods will yield power gains in the presence of fat tails and persistent volatility clustering, and the strength of these …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011342578