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We develop a general framework for measuring biases in expectation formation. The method is based on the insight that biases can be inferred from the response of forecast errors to past news. Empirically, biases are measured by flexibly estimating the impulse response function of forecast...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011869992
We develop a tractable theory to study the impact of biased media on election outcomes, voter turnout and welfare. News … rise in media bias affects the election outcome in a non-monotonic way, and reduces voter welfare by decreasing the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012030647
Limited memory capacity, retrieval constraints and anchoring are central to expectation formation processes. We develop a model of adaptive expectations where individuals are able to store only a finite number of past experiences of a stochastic state variable. Retrieval of these experiences is...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010465148
We experimentally investigate how price expectations are formed in a large asset market where subjects' only task is to forecast the future price of a risky asset. The realized prices depend on these expectations. We observe small (6 participants) and large markets (about 100 participants). In...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011979625
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003774506
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created by Monte Carlo simulation to test, in a controlled environment, the effects of the different possible sources of bias … utilities is negative, then the bias in the MNL estimate is negative, whereas if the correlation is positive the bias is …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011379636
largely due to a bias induced by the aggregation of skill types into broad categories. An assignment model is applied where … the bias. Estimation results for the United States show elasticities of complementarity to be underestimated by up to a …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011299960
Most evidence of hyperbolic discounting is based on violations of either stationarity or time consistency as observed in choice experiments. These choice reversals may however also result from time-varying discount rates. Hyperbolic discounting is a plausible explanation for choice reversals...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011307819
bias. We study this by using a data set that combines survey information of individual workers with administrative records … survey respondents and non-respondents. We develop a method to distinguish empirically between two explanations for a bias in … both explanations. We discuss implications for standard methods to deal with non-response bias. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011338006