The depreciation of the Hungarian forint in 2009 left Hungarian borrowers with a skyrocketing value of foreign currency debt. The resulting losses worsened debt overhang in to debt-ridden firms and eroded bank capital. Therefore, although Hungarian banks had partially isolated their balance...

The forward premium puzzle (FPP) is the negative correlation between the forward premium and the realized exchange rate return at maturities of a month and beyond. Some recent evidence shows that at maturities of multiple years and at the highest intra day frequency the correlation is positive...

When analysing the volatility related to high frequency financial data, mostly non-parametric approaches based on realised or bipower variation are applied. This article instead starts from a continuous time diffusion model and derives a parametric analog at high frequency for it, allowing...

Exchange rates typically exhibit time-varying patterns in both means andvariances. The histograms of such series indicate heavy tails. In thispaper we construct models which enable a decision-maker to analyze theimplications of such time series patterns for currency risk management.Our approach...

We propose in this paper a likelihood-based framework forcointegration analysis in panels of a fixed number of vector errorcorrection models. Maximum likelihood estimators of thecointegrating vectors are constructed using iterated GeneralizedMethod of Moments estimators. Using these estimators...

This paper focuses on ignored issues regarding the impact of trade reforms in transition economies. These economies are primarily characterized by a low quality of their products, large depreciations of their currencies, and a high degree of government intervention in economic activity. These...

Exchange rate returns are fat-tailed distributed. We provide evidence that the apparent non-normality derives from the behavior of macroeconomic fundamentals. Economic and probabilistic arguments are offered for such a relationship. Empirical support is given by testing against normality and...

We construct models which enable a decision-maker to analyze the implications oftypical timeseries patterns of daily exchange rates for currency risk management. Ourapproach is Bayesianwhere extensive use is made of Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. The effects ofseveral modelcharacteristics...

This paper investigates how cryptocurrencies relate to concepts such as bubbles, Ponzi-schemes and digital gold in a tractable model for cryptocurrency prices. Investors in the baseline equilibrium hold coins to sell them at a profit to future users if they anticipate in increase in...