The sum of squared intraday returns provides an unbiased and almost error-free measure of ex-post volatility. In this … paper we develop a nonlinear Autoregressive Fractionally Integrated Moving Average (ARFIMA) model for realized volatility …, which accommodates level shifts, day-of-the-week effects, leverage effects and volatility level effects. Applying the model …

improved volatility measurements but has also inspired research into their potential value as an information source for … volatility forecasting. In this paper we explore the forecasting value of historical volatility (extracted from daily return … series), of implied volatility (extracted from option pricing data) and of realised volatility (computed as the sum of …

improved ex-post volatility measurements but has also inspired research into their potential value as an informa-tion source … for longer horizon volatility forecasts. In this paper we explore the forecasting value of these high fre-quency series in … conjunction with a variety of volatility models for returns on the Standard & Poor's 100 stock index. We consider two so …

dynamics adapts to the non-normal nature of financial data, which helps to robustify the volatility estimates. The new model … volatility forecasting of stock returns and exchange rates. …

Although the main interest in the modelling of electricity prices is often on volatility aspects, we argue that … towards volatility features of the time series.For the older electricity market of Nord Pool in Norway, it is found that a …

predicting monthly US excess stock returns and volatility over the period 1980-2005. Factor-augmented predictive regression … superior market timing ability and volatility timing ability, while a mean-variance investor would be willing to pay an annual …

In this paper we aim to measure actual volatility within a model-based framework using high-frequency data. In the … at smaller and smaller time intervals. High-frequency returns are used for the computation of realised volatility. Recent … theoretical results have shown that realised volatility is a consistent estimator of actual volatility but when it is subject to …

forecasting, the authors propose a new factor multivariate stochastic volatility (fMSV) model for realized covariance measures …